Welcome to this installment of “Alternative History”. Today, I will explain what would have happened to the United States if President Donald J. Trump was reelected in the 2020 presidential election. In this scenario, President Trump was trailing in all of the polls just like in 2016 but on election week 2020, he shocked the world again by beating all of the odds and narrowly winning reelection with 290 electoral votes while his opponent, Democrat Joe Biden received 258 electoral votes. The electoral college map was very similar to 2016 with only the state of Michigan flipping to the Democrats.
Election Aftermath:
*Due to President Trump’s coattails, Georgia Republican Sen. David Perdue was reelected with 51% of the vote avoiding a runoff with Democrat Jon Ossoff. Georgia Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler won her runoff on January 5 also with 51% of the vote. Republicans retained the Senate with 52 seats.
*At the House of Representatives, Republicans completely shocked the experts retaking control of the House with 219 seats while the Democrats won 216 seats. In this scenario, the GOP won NJ-7, IA-3, IL-14, VA-7 and WI-3. Rep. Kevin McCarthy becomes the Speaker of The House. Rep. Steve Scalise becomes Majority Leader and conservative Rep. Jim Jordan becomes Majority Whip. Under pressure from her own party, Nancy Pelosi resigns from Congress a few days before the new Congress is sworn in.
*The presidential election is called on Friday, November 6 after the networks declared President Trump the winner of Pennsylvania. That night, Joe Biden gives his concession speech. During the weekend, Democrats and liberals protested in the streets blaming Russia again for President Trump’s shocking win.
*On the following day, President Trump officially fires Dr. Anthony Fauci, Dr. Deborah Birx and CDC Director Robert Redfield. The President appoints Dr. Scott Atlas to be the next CDC Director. He also fires FBI Director Christopher Wray. Democrats and the media are outraged but they are powerless as the GOP regained control of the House.
*Bill Barr agrees to stay as Attorney General for President Trump’s second term. Dr. Ben Carson, Wilbur Ross and Sonny Perdue announce their retirements and are replaced. Defense Secretary Mark Esper still gets fired by the President in this scenario. The rest of the cabinet stays for the start of the second term. Chad Wolf finally gets appointed full time as DHS Secretary.
*The U.S. Capitol Riots never occur and President Trump is allowed to stay on Twitter.
*President Trump requests and receives a regular Inauguration with celebrations, parades and a full packed audience for his Inauguration speech. Many Democrats including Former Presidents Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama boycotted the Inauguration due to COVID-19 concerns but Former President George W. Bush reluctantly attends.
Coronavirus Pandemic:
*During the month of December as COVID-19 cases are surging, President Trump delivers a very important Primetime Oval Office address. He announces and signs a new pandemic executive order which involves the speedy delivery of the vaccine, the restoration of several travel bans, quick reopening of public schools or else lose federal funding and quick reopening of restaurants and businesses or else states would lose federal funding.
*During his speech, President Trump announces that CDC Director Dr. Scott Atlas has changed several CDC guidelines to encourage reopenings and discourage lockdowns. The CDC no longer recommends social distancing or masks for the majority of the population and only encourages them for the old and vulnerable until they are vaccinated. The President tells the American people to not fear the virus and explains to them that the virus has a 99% death rate for most people. Health experts become outraged at the CDC’s new guidelines and they launch a campaign encouraging lockdowns and social distancing.
*Democrats become very angry and sue the President seeking to overturn the executive order but they fail. Many school districts were forced to reopen but surprisingly, virus spread is reported to be very low. The states of California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Virginia, New Jersey, and New York lose federal funding because they refused to reopen businesses and those states suffer under lockdown for the next few months until they reluctantly reopen and federal funding is restored.
*Mass vaccine sites are set up starting on January as President Trump invokes the Defense Production Act. By March 2021, 100 million Americans are vaccinated and Herd Immunity is achieved the next month. Life fully returns to normalcy by the middle of Spring.
*Health experts continue to fearmonger about the virus saying it will get worse even as virus cases decline. They start to lose credibility to the point where most Americans start to ignore them. Dr. Anthony Fauci becomes a CNN contributor and becomes a very angry and partisan man attacking President Trump’s pandemic policies.
The Economy:
*In this scenario, President Trump still reluctantly signs the December 2020 stimulus bill. But this stimulus would be the absolute final one.
*The GOP Congress passes another tax cut bill cutting taxes for most Americans, reducing capital gain taxes, reducing the payroll tax, and closed some loopholes. The bill passes with no Democrat votes and President Trump signs it into law. The economy quickly recovers afterwards but the deficit and national debt increases to record levels alarming fiscal conservatives in Congress.
*The unemployment rate falls to 5% by the end of spring 2021. By the end of 2021, the unemployment rate returns to pre-pandemic levels.
Big Tech:
*Under pressure from President Trump, the GOP Congress uses the budget reconciliation process to pass the Communications Act of 2021. The bill repeals section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act, prohibits the censorship and banning of social media users unless in extreme cases, prohibits the merging of social media entities, and reduces the overall powers of social media companies.
*The bill passes with a few moderate Democrats voting yea. President Trump signs it into law and the law will go down as one of President Trump’s greatest accomplishments to conservatives.
Immigration:
*The GOP Congress again uses the budget reconciliation process to pass the Immigration Act of 2021. The bill permanently extends the Remain in Mexico policy, gives billions of dollars to DHS, ICE and CBP for resources, grants billions of dollars for the border wall, permanently extends the rapid deportation of illegals crossing the border, extends the green card ban until the end of 2021, extends bans on several visa programs until end of 2021, and prohibits the deportation of DACA recipients.
*The bill barely passes with no Democrat votes. President Trump signs the bill into law fulfilling a major campaign promise from 2016 and 2020.
*By the end of 2022, border wall construction is finally finished in all sections that require one. Illegal immigration levels fall to record low levels thanks to the new law.
Healthcare:
*The GOP Congress tries to pass several bills reforming the healthcare system. Only one bill that lowers drug prices passes both chambers of Congress and is signed into law.
Foreign Policy:
*The Trump administration slaps several sanctions on China for their role in causing the Coronavirus Pandemic.
*President Trump announces that there will no longer be any new trade deals with China for the rest of his presidency. New tariffs are slapped on China.
*President Trump is not happy with the Afghanistan troop withdrawal process several months into his second term. So, he immediately orders all U.S. troops to leave Afghanistan effectively ending U.S. involvement in that country after 20 years. The country dissolves into chaos afterwards but President Trump does nothing as Neoconservatives become outraged.
*Iran continues to threaten the United States but nothing militarily happens for the remainder of the Trump presidency.
*No new wars or conflicts are started during President Trump’s second term.
*More peace deals are signed between countries.
*Nothing happens with North Korea.
Thanks for Reading. I may do more Alternative History installments in the future!
Andrew's Journal 